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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    December retail trade sales expanded 0.9% year-on-year, more or less in line with expectations. As had been expected, the month-on-month number dropped sharply, falling -2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, largely as a result of preemptive Christmas shopping taking place in November, particularly on Black Friday. Clothing sales were the dominant driver of the expansion, […]

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    John acquired the degree Master in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch before starting his career as an economist in the National Treasury. He was part of the team that implemented the country’s first Medium Term Expenditure Framework in the early days of Minister Trevor Manuel’s tenure as Finance Minister. Thereafter, he became the Southern African Macroeconomist for Globalinsight, a major United States based economic consultancy with a global presence. He entered banking with BOE Group, shortly before moving to Absa Group in 2000 where he was the senior macroeconomist co-ordinating the Group’s macroeconomic forecasting process. In 2004, he was named Reuters Economist of the Year. In 2006, he joined First national Bank to pursue a slightly different focus as the bank’s Property Economist. He’s a social endurance sport junkie, having brought up the rear of the field in events such as the Comrades Ultra-Marathon, the Ironman Ultra-Triathlon, and more recently the 2,330 km Freedom Challenge Mountain Bike Race Across South Africa. His sporting allegiances lie with the Blue Bulls.

    Late in 2016, the available indicators all pointed to a Residential Mortgage Market in decline. Signs of a mildly improving economy approaching in the near term may turn this trend around, but probably only late in 2017 at best. For the full article, click here.

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    John acquired the degree Master in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch before starting his career as an economist in the National Treasury. He was part of the team that implemented the country’s first Medium Term Expenditure Framework in the early days of Minister Trevor Manuel’s tenure as Finance Minister. Thereafter, he became the Southern African Macroeconomist for Globalinsight, a major United States based economic consultancy with a global presence. He entered banking with BOE Group, shortly before moving to Absa Group in 2000 where he was the senior macroeconomist co-ordinating the Group’s macroeconomic forecasting process. In 2004, he was named Reuters Economist of the Year. In 2006, he joined First national Bank to pursue a slightly different focus as the bank’s Property Economist. He’s a social endurance sport junkie, having brought up the rear of the field in events such as the Comrades Ultra-Marathon, the Ironman Ultra-Triathlon, and more recently the 2,330 km Freedom Challenge Mountain Bike Race Across South Africa. His sporting allegiances lie with the Blue Bulls.

    An uptick in the still-small percentage of 105-109% LTP bonds is “interesting”, and “100% and above” LTP loans form a significant 42.9% of total bonds, but mortgage lenders’ as a group remain conservative on LTPs compared to the days of the pre-2008 boom For the full article, click here.

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    John acquired the degree Master in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch before starting his career as an economist in the National Treasury. He was part of the team that implemented the country’s first Medium Term Expenditure Framework in the early days of Minister Trevor Manuel’s tenure as Finance Minister. Thereafter, he became the Southern African Macroeconomist for Globalinsight, a major United States based economic consultancy with a global presence. He entered banking with BOE Group, shortly before moving to Absa Group in 2000 where he was the senior macroeconomist co-ordinating the Group’s macroeconomic forecasting process. In 2004, he was named Reuters Economist of the Year. In 2006, he joined First national Bank to pursue a slightly different focus as the bank’s Property Economist. He’s a social endurance sport junkie, having brought up the rear of the field in events such as the Comrades Ultra-Marathon, the Ironman Ultra-Triathlon, and more recently the 2,330 km Freedom Challenge Mountain Bike Race Across South Africa. His sporting allegiances lie with the Blue Bulls.

    Emigration is something of a cyclical phenomenon, it would appear. While it can be driven by households’ perceptions of the longer term future of the country, with recent years of “heightened social tensions” playing a role, it also has much to do with the economic cycle both in South Africa and abroad. The emigration-related part […]

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    John acquired the degree Master in Economics at the University of Stellenbosch before starting his career as an economist in the National Treasury. He was part of the team that implemented the country’s first Medium Term Expenditure Framework in the early days of Minister Trevor Manuel’s tenure as Finance Minister. Thereafter, he became the Southern African Macroeconomist for Globalinsight, a major United States based economic consultancy with a global presence. He entered banking with BOE Group, shortly before moving to Absa Group in 2000 where he was the senior macroeconomist co-ordinating the Group’s macroeconomic forecasting process. In 2004, he was named Reuters Economist of the Year. In 2006, he joined First national Bank to pursue a slightly different focus as the bank’s Property Economist. He’s a social endurance sport junkie, having brought up the rear of the field in events such as the Comrades Ultra-Marathon, the Ironman Ultra-Triathlon, and more recently the 2,330 km Freedom Challenge Mountain Bike Race Across South Africa. His sporting allegiances lie with the Blue Bulls.

    The deterioration in residential mortgage market stress during the recent interest rate hiking cycle has not been severe to date, and it is plausible that we could see some improvement in the situation in 2017 should interest rates continue to move sideways Download the full article

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