Retail and Wholesale

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    February’s retail trade sales, which contracted by -1.7% y/y from -2.3% in January, provided further support to our view that the economy has entered a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction). While the m/m number was up 0.8% on a seasonally adjusted basis, the three month quarterly change reflects a -1.3% contraction, and the […]

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    Mamello is macroeconomic analyst. Prior to joining FNB she worked as a macroeconomic analyst for the RMB global markets research team. She started her career at the Bureau for Economic Research, working as a trainee Economist. Mamello holds a Bachelor of Commerce Honours Degree (Econometrics) from the University of Johannesburg.

    Retail sales maintained its weakening bias in January, contracting by a notable -2.3% y/y after rising 1.0% in December. While the contraction is partly due to base effects, high inflation, weak household credit extension and the lag effect from the interest rate hike last year, also explain the weakening trend in retail sales. There was […]

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    December retail trade sales expanded 0.9% year-on-year, more or less in line with expectations. As had been expected, the month-on-month number dropped sharply, falling -2.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis, largely as a result of preemptive Christmas shopping taking place in November, particularly on Black Friday. Clothing sales were the dominant driver of the expansion, […]

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    Sizwe Nxedlana Chief Economist at First National Bank. Prior to that he was a Senior Economist in FNB’s Wealth segment where he was involved in macroeconomic and investment research and is a member of the investment and asset allocation committees. Before joining FNB Wealth he was an economist at FNB Commercial. He began his career at the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch followed by a stint at Kagiso Trust Investments. He completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree majoring in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Cape Town and a Master of Commerce degree in economics from the University of KwaZulu Natal.

    Despite another tough year, new passenger vehicle sales in 2016 were 40% (100 thousand units) higher than sales at the height of the 2009 recession, but still 25% (120 thousand units) below the record 480 thousand units sold in 2006. Given the prevailing economic conditions, it will likely be several years before we reach the […]

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    Having rebounded from -11 index points in 2Q2016 to -3 in 3Q2016, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) sagged back to -10 in 4Q2016. Whereas the CCI only dipped to -10 index points or lower on three occasions during the twenty-one years between 1994 and 2014, this is the fourth time in less than two […]

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