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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    October headline inflation decelerated, slightly more than we had anticipated, to 4.8% y/y from September’s 5.1% print. Core inflation also softened to 4.5% y/y. Food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation fell from 5.5% in September to 5.3% in October, driven lower by a -3% contraction in bread and cereal prices. Encouragingly, meat prices are showing signs […]

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    South Africa’s manufacturing sector continues to struggle, contracting -1.6% y/y in September, and down -0.8% on a month-on-month basis. Wood and paper products, which fell -7% y/y, shaved off -0.9pps, while petroleum product manufacturing and motor vehicles, parts and accessories declined -2.5% and -4% respectively, subtracting another -0.9pps from the number. The weakness was extremely […]

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    Key Take aways Growth forecast almost halved from 1.3% to 0.7% (now in line with ours) Revenue shortfalls of R50.8 billion (17/18), R69.3 billion (18/19) and R89.4 billion (19/20) expected Tax buoyancy expectations may still be too optimistic R13.7bn bail-out for SAA (R10bn) and SA Post Office (R3.7bn) Debt forecast to rise to 60% of […]

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. A reading of -9 indicates that consumer confidence remained relatively low given that it has averaged +4 since 1994. However, it remained above […]

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    Sizwe Nxedlana Chief Economist at First National Bank. Prior to that he was a Senior Economist in FNB’s Wealth segment where he was involved in macroeconomic and investment research and is a member of the investment and asset allocation committees. Before joining FNB Wealth he was an economist at FNB Commercial. He began his career at the Bureau for Economic Research in Stellenbosch followed by a stint at Kagiso Trust Investments. He completed a Bachelor of Commerce degree majoring in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from the University of Cape Town and a Master of Commerce degree in economics from the University of KwaZulu Natal.

    The South African economy has a long history of the tertiary sector (consumption side) being a resilient pillar of growth, but this long, unbroken run was shattered with the release of the GDP figures for the first quarter of the year. The numbers showed that the sector contracted by a full 2% quarter on quarter. […]

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