South African Economics Analyst

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    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    Key Take aways Growth forecast almost halved from 1.3% to 0.7% (now in line with ours) Revenue shortfalls of R50.8 billion (17/18), R69.3 billion (18/19) and R89.4 billion (19/20) expected Tax buoyancy expectations may still be too optimistic R13.7bn bail-out for SAA (R10bn) and SA Post Office (R3.7bn) Debt forecast to rise to 60% of […]

  • Jarred Sullivan

    2Q17 GDP

    Jarred Sullivan

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    Jarred is currently an Economist at FNB. He is responsible for providing expertise, advice and support in economic practice formulation and associated best practice improvement tactics through research and analysis of economic conditions that affect industry and/or business. He is also responsible for making recommendations for strategic decisions based on findings from economic policy and financial market analysis. Before joining FNB, Jarred was a Financial Services Sector Analyst at Genesis Analytics. Here he worked on array of projects with focus ranging from investment banking, macroeconomic analysis, digital strategy formulation, alternative delivery channel risk assessments, housing finance strategy and payment opportunity analyses. The demographic of his work extended to include the whole African continent for which he provided valuable insights to several financial services clients.

    South Africa bounced back from a technical recession with GDP expanding 2.5% q/q in 2Q17, slightly above our expectations of 2.1%. The largest contributor to growth was agriculture which surged 33.6% q/q adding 0.7pps to GDP. Higher commodity prices continued to catalyse growth in the mining industry (+3.9% q/q), however, we remain cautious over the […]

    • Date of birth:
    • Lives in:
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    • Studied:

    Jarred is currently an Economist at FNB. He is responsible for providing expertise, advice and support in economic practice formulation and associated best practice improvement tactics through research and analysis of economic conditions that affect industry and/or business. He is also responsible for making recommendations for strategic decisions based on findings from economic policy and financial market analysis. Before joining FNB, Jarred was a Financial Services Sector Analyst at Genesis Analytics. Here he worked on array of projects with focus ranging from investment banking, macroeconomic analysis, digital strategy formulation, alternative delivery channel risk assessments, housing finance strategy and payment opportunity analyses. The demographic of his work extended to include the whole African continent for which he provided valuable insights to several financial services clients.

    Highlights SA: It was a week of mixed fortunes in terms of domestic news and data. Employment figures unsurprisingly continued to disappoint, while mining and manufacturing, despite persistent weakness, are set to positively contribute to 2Q17 GDP, albeit off a low base. SSA: Zambia opted to cut the policy rate by 150bps to 11%. Mozambique […]

    • Date of birth:
    • Lives in:
    • From:
    • Studied:

    Jarred is currently an Economist at FNB. He is responsible for providing expertise, advice and support in economic practice formulation and associated best practice improvement tactics through research and analysis of economic conditions that affect industry and/or business. He is also responsible for making recommendations for strategic decisions based on findings from economic policy and financial market analysis. Before joining FNB, Jarred was a Financial Services Sector Analyst at Genesis Analytics. Here he worked on array of projects with focus ranging from investment banking, macroeconomic analysis, digital strategy formulation, alternative delivery channel risk assessments, housing finance strategy and payment opportunity analyses. The demographic of his work extended to include the whole African continent for which he provided valuable insights to several financial services clients.

    Highlights SA: June PPI for final manufactured goods fell to 4% y/y from 4.8% in May and contracted –0.3% m/m. The Reserve Bank’s composite leading business cycle indicator for May remained unchanged from the month before at 95.8. SSA: The Central Bank of Swaziland opted to keep the discount rate unchanged at 7.25%.The Central Bank […]

    • Date of birth:
    • Lives in:
    • From:
    • Studied:

    Jason is the senior industry analyst at FNB. Prior to joining FNB, Jason worked in the Global Markets Research team at Rand Merchant Bank. In his six years with the FirstRand group, he has advised both internal and external clients on how macroeconomic factors will impact developments within the various sectors of the economy. Before joining Rand Merchant Bank, Jason was the Head of Natural Resources research at Accenture, a global management consultancy. He holds a PhD in Anthropology from the University of the Witwatersrand.

    After increasing from -10 in the fourth quarter of 2016 to -5 in the first quarter of 2017, the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) fell back to -9 in the second quarter. A reading of -9 indicates that consumer confidence remained relatively low given that it has averaged +4 since 1994. However, it remained above […]

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